Tractor Supply company had benefited in surprising ways from the COVID-19 pandemic, most notably from household migration to rural areas and a shift in consumption habits toward the self-reliant, outdoor-centered lifestyle at the core of its business model. CEO Hal Lawton was justifiably enthusiastic about the business’s near-term prospects and looking forward to celebrating its 85th anniversary. However, the industry was not without headwinds, and continued success would be critical to sustaining investor interest and boosting share prices that had already reached historic highs. Lawton had communicated financial goals for the next year, and the central analytic challenge posed by the case is building a detailed financial forecast from these goals. Classroom discussions will focus on how growth, margin, and capital expenditure forecasts affect financial statements; the technical aspects of building ratio-based financial statements; and how the financing of the business ultimately reflects underlying business decisions. The case is particularly suitable for introducing the discipline imposed on forecasts by the accounting identity: that assets must equal the sum of liabilities and equity or, equivalently and in terms of flows, that sources must equal uses. At the University of Virginia Darden School of Business, this case is used in the first-year finance curriculum in a module on financial forecasting. It can be used both to introduce financial modeling and as a setting in which to explore advanced forecasting topics, including the measurement of leverage.